A new analysis compiled by Bader Law outlines a widening gap in vaccine confidence, rising nonmedical exemptions, and a sharp increase in measles cases across the United States. The study draws on CDC, FDA, and state-level reporting to examine where vaccine‑related risks are concentrated and how declining vaccination rates are reshaping public health outcomes.

The findings reveal a country where vaccine side effects remain rare but unevenly distributed, while preventable diseases are resurging in communities with low immunization coverage.

COVID‑19 Vaccines and Myocarditis: Who Is Most at Risk

The report begins with one of the most scrutinized vaccine safety issues: myocarditis following mRNA COVID‑19 vaccination.

Key data points include:

• More than 2,000 U.S. children and teens have died from COVID‑19, including 700 infants under age one.
• A U.S. FDA adviser has linked 10 child deaths to COVID‑19 vaccination, citing myocarditis as a contributing factor.
• Young males ages 12 to 30 face the highest myocarditis risk after vaccination.
• 81 percent of myocarditis patients recovered within roughly three months.
• People infected with COVID‑19 are over seven times more likely to develop myocarditis than vaccinated individuals.
• 61 percent of myocarditis cases occurred in men.
• Only 1.07 percent of post‑vaccine myocarditis cases required hospitalization.
• Fatal myocarditis after vaccination was extremely rare at 0.015 percent.

Moderna’s vaccine showed the highest myocarditis rate among the vaccines studied, though still far below the myocarditis risk associated with COVID‑19 infection.

Confidence in Routine Vaccines Remains High, but COVID‑19 Skepticism Persists

Despite broad trust in long‑established vaccines, the study shows that confidence in COVID‑19 vaccines remains fractured.

According to national polling cited in the report:

• 83 percent of adults are at least somewhat confident in the measles vaccine.
• 82 percent express confidence in the pneumonia vaccine.
• 74 percent trust shingles and flu vaccines.
• Only 56 percent feel somewhat confident in COVID‑19 vaccines.

Political differences are pronounced:

• 87 percent of Democrats express confidence.
• 55 percent of independents express confidence.
• 30 percent of Republicans express confidence.

This divide is already influencing childhood vaccination patterns.

Nonmedical Exemptions Are Rising in 36 States

The study identifies a steady increase in nonmedical vaccine exemptions among kindergarteners.

Key findings:

• 3.6 percent of kindergarteners received exemptions in the 2024–25 school year, up from 2.2 percent a decade earlier.
• Medical exemptions remain below 1 percent nationwide.
• Nonmedical exemptions rose in 36 states and Washington, D.C.
• 138,000 kindergarteners were exempt from one or more vaccines.
• 286,000 children attended school without documentation of completing the MMR series.

The ten states with the highest nonmedical exemption rates:

1. Idaho – 15.1%
2. Utah – 10%
3. Oregon – 9.7%
4. Alaska – 9%
5. Arizona – 9%
6. Nevada – 6.7%
7. North Dakota – 6.7%
8. South Dakota – 6.7%
9. Michigan – 6.5%
10. Wisconsin – 6.3%

Measles Cases Surge to Highest Levels in Years

Declining vaccination rates have coincided with a dramatic rise in measles cases.

As of December 2025, the U.S. recorded 1,958 confirmed measles cases, compared with:

• 285 cases in 2024
• 59 cases in 2023
• 121 cases in 2022
• 49 cases in 2021

Age breakdown of 2025 cases:

• Under 5: 26 percent
• Ages 5–19: 41 percent
• Over 20: 32 percent

Vaccination status:

• 93 percent were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status.
• 3 percent had one MMR dose.
• 4 percent had two doses.

Texas led the nation with 803 cases, followed by Arizona (182) and South Carolina (142). Eight states reported zero cases.

Adverse Event Reporting Shows Gender and Political Patterns

The study also highlights disparities in adverse event reporting across gender and political geography.

Among 45,843 adverse events after one vaccine dose:

• 31,018 were reported by females.
• 14,688 were reported by males.
• 35,368 of these events followed a COVID‑19 vaccine.

Fatalities between 2020 and 2025 totaled 7,259, including:

• 4,348 male deaths
• 2,847 female deaths

States with the highest total deaths:

1. Kentucky – 759
2. Texas – 509
3. Michigan – 372
4. California – 320
5. Florida – 292

A cross‑sectional analysis cited in the study found that a 10 percent increase in Republican vote share correlated with a 5 percent increase in reported COVID‑19 vaccine adverse events and a 25 percent increase in severe adverse events.

A Public Health Landscape Defined by Contradictions

The data compiled by Bader Law paints a complex national picture: vaccine side effects remain rare but are not evenly distributed, while preventable diseases are resurging in communities with low vaccination rates. The study suggests that until vaccine confidence stabilizes, the U.S. will continue to face a dual challenge: addressing legitimate safety concerns while confronting the consequences of declining immunization.