Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the U.S. transportation system, from basic driver‑assist features to fully autonomous vehicles. A new analysis reviewed by CR Legal shows that while AI promises major safety improvements and billions in cost savings, public trust remains low and accident trends reveal a complex, uneven path toward safer roads. The findings also carry important implications for North Carolina, a state preparing for wider adoption of autonomous technology across its growing urban corridors.

According to Spherical Insights & Consulting, the global AI transportation market is projected to grow from $2.12 billion in 2023 to $10.25 billion by 2033, a compound annual growth rate of 17.07 percent. By 2030, Electro IQ estimates that 15 percent of all new cars will be fully autonomous. Yet despite this rapid expansion, Americans remain wary. A 2023 AAA survey found that 68 percent of respondents were afraid of autonomous vehicles, up sharply from 55 percent the year before.

AI Adoption Is Accelerating Across the U.S. Auto Market

AI‑powered features are no longer limited to luxury vehicles. A 2025 ElectroiQ study found that 38 percent of cars on the U.S. market now include some level of autonomy. These systems range from basic driver assistance to advanced conditional automation.

AI is also reshaping transportation economics:

• Optimized public transit costs: 12 percent reduction
• Reduced aviation maintenance costs: 17.5 percent
• Reduced fuel use in logistics: 20 percent
• Annual transportation savings by 2030: $60 billion
• Average transportation cost reduction for AI‑adopting companies: 15 percent

Autonomous trucking companies report operating cost reductions of up to 42 percent, while autonomous taxi fleets can eliminate driver salary expenses and improve fuel efficiency.

These savings explain why transportation companies continue to invest heavily in AI despite public hesitation.

Robotaxis and Autonomous Vehicles: A Mixed Safety Record

The global robotaxi market was valued at $1.76 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach $98.59 billion by 2030, a staggering 65.3 percent CAGR. But safety outcomes remain inconsistent.

Key performance comparisons include:

• Cruise robotaxis: 1 accident every 43,000 miles
• National human‑driven average: 1 accident every 192,000 miles
• Tesla Full Self‑Driving: 3.2 million miles per accident
• Human‑driven Teslas: 588,000 miles per accident
• Waymo autonomous vehicles: 476,000 miles per accident

These figures show that some autonomous systems outperform human drivers, while others lag far behind.

Accident distribution is also highly concentrated. Between 2022 and 2025, the states with the most autonomous‑vehicle crashes were:

• California
• Texas: 345 crashes
• Arizona: 341 crashes
• Florida: 213 crashes (191 involving semi‑autonomous systems)

North Carolina is not among the highest‑incident states, but as adoption grows, the state will face similar safety and regulatory challenges.

Projected Safety Benefits Are Significant

Despite current concerns, long‑term projections show major potential gains:

• Autonomous testing has reduced U.S. accidents from 9.1 to 4.6 per million miles
• Speed‑related fatalities (25 percent of all deaths) could decline with automated speed regulation
• By 2050, self‑driving cars could save 21,700 lives annually
• Automation could prevent 4.22 million accidents per year
• Traffic‑related problems could drop by 80 percent
• Emissions could fall by up to 90 percent
• Insurance premiums could drop by up to 90 percent

These projections illustrate why policymakers and transportation agencies continue to push for expanded autonomous‑vehicle testing.

Levels of Automation: Most Cars Still Far From Full Autonomy

The study outlines the five levels of vehicle automation, from Level 0 (no automation) to Level 5 (full autonomy). As of late 2025:

• 60 percent of new cars sold globally included Level 2 autonomy
• By 2030, Level 3 and Level 4 vehicles are expected to make up 8 percent of new sales

Full Level 5 autonomy remains years away, with safety, regulatory, and infrastructure barriers still unresolved.

Public Trust Remains a Major Obstacle

Consumer skepticism is one of the biggest hurdles to widespread adoption:

• Only 12 percent of Americans fully trust self‑driving technology
• 46 percent have zero trust
• 73 percent are afraid to ride in a self‑driving vehicle
• Only 13 percent say they would trust riding in one, up from 9 percent the previous year

Perceptions are improving, however. In 2018, 55 percent of Americans believed autonomous cars would increase accidents. By 2021, that number had dropped to 27 percent.

Accident Trends Show Growing Pains

As autonomous features become more common, accident totals have risen:

• Self‑driving crashes increased from 288 in 2023 to 544 in 2024
• Semi‑autonomous crashes increased 35 percent over the same period

These increases reflect broader deployment rather than declining safety, but they reinforce public concerns.

What This Means for North Carolina

North Carolina is expanding its autonomous‑vehicle testing zones and preparing for increased adoption in Charlotte, Raleigh, and the Research Triangle. The state’s mix of dense urban areas, rural highways, and rapidly growing suburbs makes it a key testing ground for AI‑driven transportation.

The findings reviewed by CR Legal highlight several implications for North Carolina:

• Urban congestion may benefit from AI‑driven traffic optimization
• Rural areas may see safety gains from automated speed control
• Public skepticism will remain a barrier to adoption
• Infrastructure upgrades will be essential for Level 3 and Level 4 vehicles
• Legal questions around liability, system failure, and driver responsibility remain unresolved

As North Carolina moves toward broader integration of autonomous technology, the state will need to balance innovation with safety, transparency, and public trust.